论文标题
PCNN:短期交通拥堵预测的深度卷积网络
PCNN: Deep Convolutional Networks for Short-term Traffic Congestion Prediction
论文作者
论文摘要
交通问题严重影响了人们的生活质量和城市发展,预测短期交通拥堵对个人和政府都非常重要。但是,了解和建模交通状况可能非常困难,我们对实际流量数据的观察结果表明,(1)相邻的时间段段和连续工作日存在类似的交通拥堵模式; (2)交通拥堵的水平具有明显的多尺度性能。为了捕获这些特征,我们提出了一种基于深度卷积神经网络的名为PCNN的新方法,为短期交通拥堵预测的周期性流量数据建模。 PCNN有两个关键程序:时间序列折叠和多透明学习。它首先暂时折叠时间序列,并构建二维矩阵作为网络输入,从而很好地考虑了实时交通状况和过去的交通模式。然后,在输入矩阵上进行了一系列的卷积,它可以对本地时间依赖性和多尺度流量模式进行建模。特别是,可以在宏观上解决全球交通拥堵的趋势。虽然可以在微观尺度上捕获拥塞的更多细节和变化。现实世界中的城市流量数据集的实验结果证实,将折叠时间序列数据数据折叠为二维矩阵是有效的,并且PCNN在短期拥塞预测的任务上表现出明显优于基准。
Traffic problems have seriously affected people's life quality and urban development, and forecasting the short-term traffic congestion is of great importance to both individuals and governments. However, understanding and modeling the traffic conditions can be extremely difficult, and our observations from real traffic data reveal that (1) similar traffic congestion patterns exist in the neighboring time slots and on consecutive workdays; (2) the levels of traffic congestion have clear multiscale properties. To capture these characteristics, we propose a novel method named PCNN based on deep Convolutional Neural Network, modeling Periodic traffic data for short-term traffic congestion prediction. PCNN has two pivotal procedures: time series folding and multi-grained learning. It first temporally folds the time series and constructs a two-dimensional matrix as the network input, such that both the real-time traffic conditions and past traffic patterns are well considered; then with a series of convolutions over the input matrix, it is able to model the local temporal dependency and multiscale traffic patterns. In particular, the global trend of congestion can be addressed at the macroscale; whereas more details and variations of the congestion can be captured at the microscale. Experimental results on a real-world urban traffic dataset confirm that folding time series data into a two-dimensional matrix is effective and PCNN outperforms the baselines significantly for the task of short-term congestion prediction.