论文标题
冠状病毒和油价崩溃
Coronavirus and oil price crash
论文作者
论文摘要
冠状病毒（Covid-19）创造了恐惧和不确定性，打击了全球经济并扩大了金融市场的波动。对Covid-19的石油价格反应逐渐容纳到2020年3月9日，当时，世界卫生组织（WHO）发行了第一届冠状病毒监测报告后49天，沙特阿拉伯用石油淹没了市场。结果，国际价格在一天之内下降了20％以上。在这种背景下，本文的目的是调查Covid-19的数字对原油价格的影响，同时控制财务波动和美国（美国）经济政策不确定性的影响。我们的ARDL估计表明，Covid-19每日报道的新感染病例从长远来看对原油价格的负面影响很小。然而，通过扩大金融市场的波动，Covid-19也对原油价格最近的动态产生了间接影响。
Coronavirus (COVID-19) creates fear and uncertainty, hitting the global economy and amplifying the financial markets volatility. The oil price reaction to COVID-19 was gradually accommodated until March 09, 2020, when, 49 days after the release of the first coronavirus monitoring report by the World Health Organization (WHO), Saudi Arabia floods the market with oil. As a result, international prices drop with more than 20% in one single day. Against this background, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of COVID-19 numbers on crude oil prices, while controlling for the impact of financial volatility and the United States (US) economic policy uncertainty. Our ARDL estimation shows that the COVID-19 daily reported cases of new infections have a marginal negative impact on the crude oil prices in the long run. Nevertheless, by amplifying the financial markets volatility, COVID-19 also has an indirect effect on the recent dynamics of crude oil prices.
