论文标题
在一类关节动力模型中的末端事件(TTTE)预测
Prediction of Time-to-terminal Event (TTTE) in a Class of Joint Dynamic Models
论文作者
论文摘要
在不同的研究领域,经常在同一观察单位上观察到多次反复竞争风险(RCR)。例如,在同一患者上观察到不同类型的癌症复发,并且在同一可靠性系统中观察到了几种类型的成分失败。当在同一单位上也观察到末端事件(TE)(TE),因为RCR通常对死亡有用,我们开发了同时对RCR和TE进行建模的联合动态模型。这种联合动态建模的关键兴趣是预测在监测期结束时未经历TE的新单元的末端事件(TTTE)。在本文中,我们提出了一种模拟方法来预测TTTE,该方法由RCR和TE的一类关节动态模型产生。提出的方法可以应用于精确医学和许多其他情况下的问题。模拟方法对TTTE进行了个性化预测,并提供了TTTE的经验预测分布。还会产生超出可能随机监测时间并导致TE发生的RCR发生的预测。该方法是动态的,因为每次模拟的RCR发生都会增加我们在观察单元上获得的知识量,该观察单元为TTTE的模拟提供了信息。我们在合成数据集上演示了该方法,并通过使用经验的布里尔评分通过5倍的交叉验证来评估预测方法的预测准确性。
In different areas of research, multiple recurrent competing risks (RCR) are often observed on the same observational unit. For instance, different types of cancer relapses are observed on the same patient and several types of component failures are observed in the same reliability system. When a terminal event (TE) such as death is also observed on the same unit, since the RCRs are generally informative about death, we develop joint dynamic models that simultaneously model the RCRs and the TE. A key interest of such joint dynamic modeling is to predict time-to-terminal event (TTTE) for new units that have not experienced the TE by the end of monitoring period. In this paper, we propose a simulation approach to predict TTTE which arises from a class of joint dynamic models of RCRs and TE. The proposed approach can be applied to problems in precision medicine and potentially many other settings. The simulation method makes personalized predictions of TTTE and provides an empirical predictive distribution of TTTE. Predictions of the RCR occurrences beyond a possibly random monitoring time and leading up to the TE occurrence are also produced. The approach is dynamic in that each simulated occurrence of RCR increases the amount of knowledge we obtain on an observational unit which informs the simulation of TTTE. We demonstrate the approach on a synthetic dataset and evaluate predictive accuracy of the prediction method through 5-fold cross-validation using empirical Brier score.