论文标题
Ross-Macdonald型号:我们应该使用哪种?
Ross-Macdonald Models: Which one should we use?
论文作者
论文摘要
Ross-Macdonald模型是大多数媒介传播疾病模型的基础。即使对于同一疾病,不同的作者也使用不同的模型制剂,但是对假设不同假设的动态后果进行了研究。在这项工作中,我们介绍了基本的Ross-Macdonald模型的不同表述,并仔细讨论了每个模型背后的假设。提出的最通用的模型是基于代理的模型,为此,考虑了该模型的延迟和传染性时期的任意分布,主机和向量都被考虑。在人群层面,我们还开发了一个确定性的Volterra积分方程模型,该方程式也包括在等待时间中的任意分布。我们使用统计数据(如流行峰或流行病最终大小)使用不同的分布来比较模型解决方案,以表征流行性曲线。计算每个公式的基本复制号($ r_0 $),并将其与基于代理的模型获得的经验估计进行了比较。强调和讨论了考虑对潜在和传染性时期的现实分布的重要性。我们还表明,季节性是媒介传播疾病动力学的关键驱动力,塑造了流行曲线及其持续时间。
Ross-Macdonald models are the building blocks of most vector-borne disease models. Even for the same disease, different authors use different model formulations, but a study of the dynamical consequences of assuming different hypotheses is missing. In this work we present different formulations of the basic Ross-Macdonald model together with a careful discussion of the assumptions behind each model. The most general model presented is an agent based model for which arbitrary distributions for latency and infectious periods for both, host and vectors, is considered. At population level we also developed a deterministic Volterra integral equations model for which also arbitrary distributions in the waiting times are included. We compare the model solutions using different distributions for the infectious and latency periods using statistics, like the epidemic peak, or epidemic final size, to characterize the epidemic curves. The basic reproduction number ($R_0$) for each formulation is computed and compared with empirical estimations obtained with the agent based models. The importance of considering realistic distributions for the latent and infectious periods is highlighted and discussed. We also show that seasonality is a key driver of vector-borne disease dynamics shaping the epidemic curve and its duration.