论文标题
气候变化和谷物生产波动
Climate Change and Grain Production Fluctuations
论文作者
论文摘要
长期农艺实验的长达50年的时间序列已用于研究气候变化对小麦和玉米产量的影响。将趋势和波动（可用于估计生产预测和相关风险）与国家的趋势和相关风险相提并论，这是一个经典的区域气候指数，如西地中海振荡指数，以及由太阳点数给出的全球。由EMD和SSA授予的数据显示了SSN振荡在过去几十年中如何减慢速度，影响了区域尺度动力学，在过去的二十年中，一系列波动（7-16年）也很明显。这两个信号都反映了小麦和玉米的产量波动，既有国家和地方一级。
50 year-long time series from a Long Term Agronomic Experiment have been used to to investigate the effects of climate change on yields of Wheat and Maize. Trends and fluctuations, useful to estimate production forecasts and related risks are compared to national ones, a classical regional climatic index as Western Mediterranean Oscillation Index, and a global one given by Sun Spot Number. Data, denoised by EMD and SSA, show how SSN oscillations slowing down in the last decades, affects regional scale dynamics, where in the last two decades a range of fluctuations (7-16 years) are also evident. Both signals reflects on yield fluctuations of Wheat and Maize both a national and local level.
