论文标题
决策,反事实解释和战略行为
Decisions, Counterfactual Explanations and Strategic Behavior
论文作者
论文摘要
由于数据驱动的预测模型越来越多地用于为决策提供信息,因此人们认为,决策者应提供解释,以帮助个人了解这些决策必须改变的是有益的。但是,几乎没有讨论个人可以使用上述反事实解释来战略性投资并最大程度地提高自己接受有益决定的机会。在本文中,我们的目标是找到在这种战略环境中实用性方面最佳的政策和反事实解释。我们首先表明,鉴于预定义的策略,找到最佳的反事实解释集的问题是NP-HARD。然后,我们表明相应的目标是无抵押和满足的,这允许标准的贪婪算法享受近似保证。此外,我们进一步表明,共同找到最佳策略和反事实解释集的问题减少了最大化非单调的子模块功能。结果,我们可以使用最近的随机算法来解决该问题,这也提供了近似保证。最后,我们证明,通过将矩阵约束纳入问题的表述中,我们可以增加反事实解释的最佳集合的多样性,并激励整个人群中的个人以自我改善。关于合成和真实贷款和信用卡数据的实验说明了我们的理论发现,并表明我们的算法发现的反事实解释和决策政策的实用性比几个竞争性基线都更高。
As data-driven predictive models are increasingly used to inform decisions, it has been argued that decision makers should provide explanations that help individuals understand what would have to change for these decisions to be beneficial ones. However, there has been little discussion on the possibility that individuals may use the above counterfactual explanations to invest effort strategically and maximize their chances of receiving a beneficial decision. In this paper, our goal is to find policies and counterfactual explanations that are optimal in terms of utility in such a strategic setting. We first show that, given a pre-defined policy, the problem of finding the optimal set of counterfactual explanations is NP-hard. Then, we show that the corresponding objective is nondecreasing and satisfies submodularity and this allows a standard greedy algorithm to enjoy approximation guarantees. In addition, we further show that the problem of jointly finding both the optimal policy and set of counterfactual explanations reduces to maximizing a non-monotone submodular function. As a result, we can use a recent randomized algorithm to solve the problem, which also offers approximation guarantees. Finally, we demonstrate that, by incorporating a matroid constraint into the problem formulation, we can increase the diversity of the optimal set of counterfactual explanations and incentivize individuals across the whole spectrum of the population to self improve. Experiments on synthetic and real lending and credit card data illustrate our theoretical findings and show that the counterfactual explanations and decision policies found by our algorithms achieve higher utility than several competitive baselines.