论文标题
基于反转和预测的结核病传播的地理信息系统
Geo-information system of spread of tuberculosis based on inversion and prediction
论文作者
论文摘要
该地区流行病的监测，分析和预测需要建立数学模型，大数据处理和可视化，因为该地区的人口量和大小可能很大。重要步骤之一是对数学模型的改进，即确定描述流行病学过程的微分方程系统的初始数据和系数。我们分析了基于遗传算法和传统优化思想的流行病学反向问题的数值方法。数值结果应用于俄罗斯联邦，哈萨克斯坦共和国和中华人民共和国地区流行病的分析和预测。由于大量数据，我们使用特殊的地理信息系统来可视化流行过程，即一种名为Digital Earth的特殊软件。
The monitoring, analysis and prediction of epidemic spread in the region require the construction of mathematical model, big data processing and visualization because the amount of population and the size of the region could be huge. One of the important steps is refinement of mathematical model, i.e. determination of initial data and coefficients of system of differential equations which describe the epidemiology processes. We analyze numerical method for solving inverse problem of epidemiology based on genetic algorithm and traditional optimization ideas. Numerical results are applied to analysis and prediction of epidemic situation in regions of Russian Federation, Republic of Kazakhstan and People's Republic of China. Due to a great amount of data we use a special Geo-information system for visualization of epidemic process, i.e. a special software named Digital Earth.
