论文标题
朝着由季节性流感引起的行为变化的数据驱动表征
Towards a data-driven characterization of behavioral changes induced by the seasonal flu
论文作者
论文摘要
在这项工作中,我们旨在确定在季节性流感期间推动行为改变的主要因素。为此,我们分析了一个独特的数据集,该数据集由434个意大利用户构成的599次调查,这是一个在2017-18和2018-19赛季期间进行参与性监视的网络平台。数据提供了社会人口统计学信息,对流感的关注程度,过去的疾病经历以及每个参与者实施的行为变化的类型。我们用一组功能描述每个响应,并将它们分为三个目标类别。这些描述了报告i)否(26%),ii)仅中度(36%),iii)行为的重大变化(38%)。在这些设置中,我们采用机器学习算法来研究仅通过查看一组功能可以预测目标变量的程度。值得注意的是,该类别中的$ 66 \%$描述了行为更重要的变化,可以通过梯度提升树正确分类。此外,我们研究了每个特征在分类任务中的重要性,并发现个人特征与其对行为改变的态度之间的复杂关系。我们发现,感染的强度,过去的疾病的重新度,对感染的敏感性和感知严重程度是分类任务中最重要的特征。有趣的是,最后两个匹配了健康信仰模型所建议的理论结构。总体而言,这项研究有助于一组专门研究由传染病引起的行为变化的表征的经验研究。
In this work, we aim to determine the main factors driving behavioral change during the seasonal flu. To this end, we analyze a unique dataset comprised of 599 surveys completed by 434 Italian users of Influweb, a Web platform for participatory surveillance, during the 2017-18 and 2018-19 seasons. The data provide socio-demographic information, level of concerns about the flu, past experience with illnesses, and the type of behavioral changes implemented by each participant. We describe each response with a set of features and divide them in three target categories. These describe those that report i) no (26 %), ii) only moderately (36 %), iii) significant (38 %) changes in behaviors. In these settings, we adopt machine learning algorithms to investigate the extent to which target variables can be predicted by looking only at the set of features. Notably, $66\%$ of the samples in the category describing more significant changes in behaviors are correctly classified through Gradient Boosted Trees. Furthermore, we investigate the importance of each feature in the classification task and uncover complex relationships between individuals' characteristics and their attitude towards behavioral change. We find that intensity, recency of past illnesses, perceived susceptibility to and perceived severity of an infection are the most significant features in the classification task. Interestingly, the last two match the theoretical constructs suggested by the Health-Belief Model. Overall, the research contributes to the small set of empirical studies devoted to the data-driven characterization of behavioral changes induced by infectious diseases.